Risk Analysis Using HOR and SWOT on Spice Importers Based on Organization and Industrial Taxonomy

CV. 777 is a spice import company that has problems in mitigating events that are quite detrimental to the company. Starting from late arrival until over stock in the warehouse. The method used is the House Of Risk and SWOT methods, where with these methods the highest risk can be known and mitigation actions will be taken. This research resulted in 14 Risk Events and 27 Risk Agents where the Risk Agent with the highest ARP value will be followed up using the SWOT method. In the study, one Risk Agent with the highest ARP value or the one with the strongest influence was found, namely Risk Agent A12 with an ARP value of 255 (fluctuations in demand for goods by customers), while the Risk Agent with the weakest influence was A4 with an ARP value of 3 (imported goods). excessive) and A26 with an ARP value of 3 (miscommunication between employees). The risk agent with the highest ARP then continued using the SWOT method and resulted in four strategies, namely SO strategy, ST strategy, WO strategy, and WT strategy. With the mitigation strategy produced by the company, it will be able to minimize the risks that can occur to the company.


I. INTRODUCTION
A company that penetrates the spice and spice trading sector, with a scope of transactions both domestically and abroad. CV. 777 is a company located on Jl. Raya Nrame, No. 98, Dsn. Ivory, Ds. Wake up, district. Pungging, Kab. Mojokerto. Carrying out trading activities ranging from farmers in the country to import activities from other countries to meet domestic demand makes the company run a solid flow of transactions every day.
In the activity of buying their own goods, both local and imported, there are often delays in goods due to many factors, as a result, customers who need goods on that day also experience delays, because of that the company loses the opportunity to sell its merchandise. Not only that, warehouse stock management also experienced over capacity, causing goods to be held in containers. To minimize this possibility, it is necessary to have a risk analysis for the media so that the incident can be overcome. The method relevant to the explanation above can use the house of risk method, because this method is able to analyze the risks that will occur in an activity.
[1] Risk is called a potential loss resulting in a certain event. Risk can occur at both an individual and organizational or group scale. The source of risk itself can be from many things, ranging from planning, politics, social, and the environment. A risk analysis must continue to be monitored in order to form a fast treatment to obtain optimal results. [2] Risk is the chance that something will happen that can affect the main goal. Risk is not certain to occur, but has the opportunity to have an impact. Every risk has consequences that can be caused, so it is important to always consider the risks that will be formed when making decisions. Therefore, there must be a deeper analysis of risk and a risk mitigation plan so that the possible risk can be reduced by the percentage of the likelihood of its occurrence.
[3]Risk categories can be divided into two forms, namely: 1. Speculative Risk Speculative risk is a risk faced by a person, organization, or company that can provide an advantage or a loss.

Pure Risk
Pure risk occurs beyond the control of a person or management. One of the things that can be done to minimize the impact of pure risk is insurance.
[4] In a series of activities that exist in the company, operations are one of the things that cannot be forgotten, because the operations themselves can affect the existence and quality of the company. With good operational synergy, a comfortable social environment will be created and will have a positive impact on the company. The company must also be able to optimize the functions of operations properly so as not to create stagnation and even decline, resulting in losses for the company.
[5] The House Of Risk method is a method that can be used as an identification of risk in an activity. Starting with the framework pioneered by Laudine H. Geraldin and I. NyomanPujawan. Conducted a more in-depth development through two methods, namely the FMEA method and the QFD method. The House Of Risk method itself is broadly divided into 2 phases, namely the risk identification phase and risk management. [6] In the HOR model, the severity of the risk event and the occurrence of the risk agent, which is the probable cause of the risk event, are the determinants of prioritizing the listed risk agents. The risk agent is considered to be the direct cause of one or more risk events. One risk event can be caused by more than one risk agent and one agent can cause a number of risk events. In addition, the relationship between each risk event and the risk agent is also a key figure in the model. [7] A strategy is one step in running a company. The SWOT method is a strategic method for sorting, analyzing, and evaluating a project or business. The four factors that are used as the basis for the swot method are Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threasts.
[8] The SWOT method is used as a tool that acts in evaluating starting from Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threasts in a business management in order to obtain the maximum strategy. And then it can be applied by analyzing and sorting about everything related to these four factors.
[9] SWOT Matrix is a very useful matching tool for managers in developing types of strategies.

SO (Strength-Opportunity) Strategy
The internal strength of the company is the key in this strategy in seizing opportunities that exist outside the company. 2. WO (Weakness-Opportunity) Strategy Internal weaknesses are minimized by developing external opportunities.

ST (Strength-Threat) Strategy
The impact of external threats in this strategy is avoided or eliminated as much as possible. 4. WT (Weakness-Threat) Strategy Defensive strategy by reducing internal weaknesses of the company and avoiding external threats.

II. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This research itself will focus on the operational aspects that the company runs to analyze the risks that can occur and take risk mitigation actions. The data collection of this research used interviews and questionnaires with data processing which was divided into 2 steps, the first using the HOR method and the second using the SWOT method. [10] The House of risk method in this study will be used as a risk identification tool to get a risk agent who has the greatest potential in causing risk. In determining the risk source to be selected, it will be based on the determination of the ARP value rating which is influenced by the severity, occurrence, and correlation of risk events and risk agents. 1. Identify risk events and risk agents. The results of this identification will be used as a questionnaire material to assess the severity and occurrence. In this study obtained 14 risk events and 27 risk agents (see  Based on discussions with the management of CV. 777 it was agreed that further action would be taken by selecting the top risk agent so that prevention efforts would be more focused and optimal. Which will be used as a follow-up action, namely risk agent A12. Furthermore, handling will be carried out using the SWOT method in order to minimize the possible risks that may occur.

III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
The method used to carry out the handling action is by using the SWOT method. By evaluating both internally and externally in the company, a maximum strategy will be designed that can be used as a mitigation measure that can be done. -An increase in the price of goods which has an impact on the quantity demanded.
-High operating costs.
-Weakening consumer purchasing power Furthermore, the total score of each factor can be broken down, Strength 2,17, Weakness 0,65, Opportunity 1,60, Threat 1,27. Then it is known that the difference in the total score of the Strength and Weakness factors is (+) 1,57, while the difference in the total score of the Opportunity and Threat factors is (+) 0,5.
From SWOT method the company is in the growth quadrant where the quadrant shows a very favorable situation for the company, because the company has opportunities and strengths. The strategy that must be applied in this condition is to support an aggressive growth policy so that the company can maximize its capabilities and take advantage of all existing opportunities.