Implementation of Spatial Autoregressive Analysis to Determine Factors Affecting the Population Dependency Ratio in West Sumatera

Sri  Wahyuni; Nonong Amalita; Fadhilah Fitri

doi:10.36456/jstat.vol18.no2.a10786

Authors

Sri Wahyuni Universitas Negeri Padang
Nonong Amalita Universitas Negeri Padang
Fadhilah Fitri Universitas Negeri Padang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36456/jstat.vol18.no2.a10786

Keywords:

CPR, Dependency Ratio, Fertility, MAFM, Lag Spatial, Spatial Analysis, West Sumatera

Abstract

The population dependency ratio illustrates the burden borne by the working-age population in supporting non-working-age groups. This study analyzes the spatial patterns of the dependency ratio across districts/cities in West Sumatra Province in 2024 using a Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) and simultaneously identifies the factors influencing it. The results show that Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Median Age at First Marriage (MAFM) significantly increase the dependency ratio, whereas Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) and the proportion of elderly population are not statistically significant. The positive and significant spatial lag coefficient (ρ = 0.0852) indicates that higher dependency ratios in neighboring regions contribute to an 8.52% increase in a given region’s dependency ratio, confirming the presence of spatial spillover effects. The spatial approach also reveals interregional variation, demonstrating that the SAR model effectively captures both local and neighboring influences, providing a more accurate understanding of demographic dynamics. These findings underscore the need for targeted policies such as fertility control, and reproductive health education considering interregional interactions to manage the population dependency burden more effectively.

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