A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model for Analyzing Poverty Rates in West Java Province
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36456/jstat.vol18.no2.a10826Keywords:
poverty, spatial panel analysis, dynamic spatial durbin panel modelAbstract
Poverty is a complex socioeconomic issue influenced by various internal and external factors and remains a major concern in Indonesia. Based on data from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the national poverty rate in 2025 reached 8.57%, decreasing by 0.1% from the previous year. In West Java Province, although poverty shows a declining trend, it remains the second-highest in terms of the number of poor residents, totaling about 3.67 million people. This study analyzes the factors affecting poverty levels in West Java by considering spatial and temporal interregional effects. The data consist of the poverty percentages of districts and cities in West Java and their related variables from 2019 to 2024. The method used is a dynamic spatial panel regression model with a spatial durbin approach. The results reveal significant spatial and dynamic effects on poverty. GRDP per capita significantly influences poverty within a region, while the unemployment rate, GRDP per capita, and population growth rate in neighboring regions also have significant effects. The model explains 99.59% of the interregional variation in poverty. These findings highlight the importance of regional coordination and sustainable policies for poverty reduction, particularly through job creation, economic equity, and population growth control.
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